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This scenario assesses the impact of executive actions the Trump Administration has stated it will take to unwind Biden-era climate and clean energy policies. This includes repeal of EPA regulations on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, vehicles (for model year 2027 and beyond), and oil & gas sector methane emissions, DOT vehicle fuel economy standards, and DOE appliance and lighting efficiency rules. The scenario also assumes the Trump Administration freezes distribution of all unspent funding made available to executive agencies by the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Law.

This scenario assesses the impact of H.R.1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025—Republicans' partisan budget 'mega-bill,' which substantially repeals nearly all of the tax credits enacted by the IRA to support clean electricity, fuels, vehicles and manufacturing. The bill also rescinds unobligated funding for clean energy and climate programs enacted by the IRA and the IIJA. We model two versions of the bill: the version passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025, and the version passed by the Senate on July 1, 2025. These scenarios all include the impacts of Executive Repeal as well.

A trio of scenarios (‘Conservative’, ‘Mid-range’, and ‘Optimistic’) assume the continuation of the full suite of federal policies enacted under the Biden Administration, including the combined impact of two landmark laws passed by the 117th Congress: H.R. 5376, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and H.R. 3684, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 (IIJA). This scenario also includes a set of regulatory policies enacted by the Biden Administration. This includes Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations on power plants (111d), tailpipe emissions for light and heavy vehicles, and methane pollution from the oil and gas sector; Department of Energy (DOE) efficiency standards; and Department of Transportation (DOT) vehicle fuel economy standards. The range of outcomes spanned by the three scenarios reflect uncertainty about the effectiveness of policy provisions and the potential impacts of constraints on siting, interconnection, supply chains and other rate-limiting factors.

This scenario reflects a transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across the economy by 2050.